Backcasting
 |
Backcasting-metoden er en planlægningsmetode indenfor politologi og fremtidsforskning, der starter med at beskrive en ønskværdig fremtid, og derefter identificerer politikker der kan forbinde denne fremtid til nutiden.
Metode
Backcasting-metoden består af 3 faser:
1: Formulering af ønsket mål, kaldet for et fremtidsbillede.
2: Status på aktuel situation.
3: Tænke tilbage fra mål til status.
Begrebets historie
Begrebet backcasting blev introduceret af Robinson i 1982 i artiklen ‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis’, Energy Policy, December 1982. Robinson tilskriver Lovins den første anvendelse af backcastingmetoden i 1976, uden at anvende selve begrebet, i studiet af energi i fremtiden. (Dreborg 1996:814).
Backcasting-begrebet blev introduceret i Danmark af Torben Bo Jansen fra Selskabet for Fremtidsforskning, der blev grundlagt af Arne Sørensen.
Litteratur
- Dreborg, Karl H. 1996: Essence of backcasting. Elsevier Science. https://www.unifg.it/sites/default/files/allegatiparagrafo/07-07-2014/essence-of-backcasting_1996_futures.pdf Arkiveret 1. december 2017 hos Wayback Machine
- Lovins, Amory 1976: Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken? http://courses.washington.edu/pbaf595/Readings/Lovins_1976.pdf Arkiveret 1. oktober 2020 hos Wayback Machine
- Jansen, Torben Bo 1999: Backcasting – den nye dagsorden. Futuriblerne. Marts 1999, årgang 27, nr. 1.
- Selskabet for Fremtidsforskning http://www.fremtidsforskning.dk Arkiveret 15. august 2018 hos Wayback Machine
Content Disclaimer
Informasi ini disarikan dari Wikipedia dan disajikan kembali untuk tujuan edukasi. Konten tersedia di bawah lisensi CC BY-SA 3.0. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas ketidakakuratan data yang bersumber dari kontribusi publik tersebut.
- The information displayed on this website is sourced in part or in whole from Wikipedia and has been adapted for the purpose of restating it. We strive to provide accurate and relevant information, however:
- There is no guarantee of absolute accuracy. Wikipedia is an open, collaborative project that can be edited by anyone, so information is subject to change.
- It is not intended to constitute professional advice. The content displayed is for informational and educational purposes only. For important decisions (e.g., medical, legal, or financial), please consult a professional.
- Content copyright. Wikipedia is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License (CC BY-SA). This means that content may be reused with appropriate attribution and shared under a similar license.
- Responsible use. Any risk arising from the use of information from this website is entirely the responsibility of the user.