1988 Manitoba general election

1988 Manitoba general election
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba ; 29 seats were needed for a majority
	Map of Election Results
Premier before election; Howard Pawley; New Democratic	Premier after election ; Gary Filmon; Progressive Conservative

The 1988 Manitoba general election was held on April 26, 1988^[1] to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Manitoba, Canada. It resulted in a minority government. The Progressive Conservative Party won 25 seats, against 20 for the Liberal Party and 12 for the New Democratic Party.

Background

The election was called unexpectedly in early 1988, after disgruntled NDP backbencher Jim Walding voted against his government's budget on March 9, 1988. With former cabinet minister Laurent Desjardins having essentially abandoned his seat earlier in the year, the Legislative Assembly was almost evenly divided. Walding's defection thus resulted in Howard Pawley's NDP government being defeated, 28 votes to 27. As the budget vote was a confidence measure, the Pawley ministry was forced to resign and call new elections two years ahead of schedule.

Popular support for the NDP was at an historically low level when the election was called, due to soaring Autopac rates and a taxpayer-funded bailout of the Manitoba Telephone System. The Pawley government's support for the Meech Lake Accord was also unpopular in some circles. One internal poll had the party at only 6% support, and there were concerns that they could be reduced to only two or three seats in the 57-seat legislature. Pawley resigned as party leader on the day after the budget defeat, and Urban Affairs Minister Gary Doer narrowly defeated Agriculture Minister Leonard Harapiak to replace him at a party convention held during the campaign.^[2]^[3]

Pawley himself announced he would enter federal politics and did not seek re-election in his own seat. In an unusual arrangement, the outgoing premier remained in office until after the election. Even after Doer's selection, the consensus was that the NDP would not be reelected. However, they managed to stabilize at around 20% in the polls. Many traditional NDP voters, especially in the city of Winnipeg, abandoned the party to support the Liberals in this cycle.

Issues

The Progressive Conservatives, led by Gary Filmon, ran on a platform of saving revenue by selling public corporations, including ManOil and Manfor. Filmon also promised to scrap the province's Public Investment Corporation entirely. The Liberals also promised more prudent fiscal management, but did not propose to sell these crown corporations. Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs was also known as a prominent opponent of the Meech Lake Accord.

The NDP, which retained a support base in the north of the province, promised to create northern training centres in Thompson and The Pas.

The national abortion debate also surfaced in this campaign, although none of the major parties put forward a clear position on the issue. Although Filmon was personally anti-abortion, the Progressive Conservatives were unwilling to propose specific action on the subject, and withdrew from an early promise to close Henry Morgentaler's private clinic. The Liberals favoured counselling, including a focus on adoption. The NDP emphasized prevention and support services for poorer women who choose to continue their pregnancies.

Campaign

The Progressive Conservatives entered the election with a significant lead in the polls, but saw their support undercut by the Liberals in the campaign's final weeks. Before the party leaders' debate, a Winnipeg Free Press poll indicated that 40% of voters considered Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs as the best choice for Premier, with 24% favouring Progressive Conservative Gary Filmon and 19% favouring NDP leader Gary Doer. 17% were undecided.

Carstairs performed well in the leaders' debate, and did much to improve her party's popularity as the campaign reached its end.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	PCMB	MLP	MNDP	Other	ME	Sample
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source					ME	Sample
Election 1988	April 26, 1988		38.37	35.52	23.62	2.49
University of Manitoba Research Ltd.	February 1988	^[4]	50.4	22.8	25.4	—	—	—
University of Manitoba Research Ltd.	October 10, 1987	^[5]	36.7	23.3	37.3	—	3.0	1,090
University of Manitoba Research Ltd.	June 1987	^[6]	35.9	18.7	40.3	—	3.0	1,005
Western Opinion Research	April 1987	^[7]	36	28	33	—	4.5	500
University of Manitoba Research Ltd.	February 1987	^[7]	32.4	16.6	45.6	—	3.0	988
Election 1986	March 18, 1986		40.56	13.92	41.50	4.02

Results

The Liberal Party performed well in Winnipeg, winning 19 out of 29 seats in that city and picking up ridings from both the NDP and Tories, and nearly managed to oust Filmon in his riding of Tuxedo, in south-central Winnipeg. The party won only one seat outside Winnipeg, however—Pawley's former seat of Selkirk, centred on the community of the same name just north of Winnipeg. It was and still is the party's best showing in an election since the then Liberal-Progressives won their last majority in 1953.

In terms of the popular vote, the Progressive Conservatives actually lost support from the last election, however they dominated the rural southern portion of the province, a traditional Tory stronghold. They made some inroads into traditional NDP territory immediately north of Winnipeg. The party also won six seats in Winnipeg, and took the northern seat of Swan River from the NDP.

The New Democrats managed to retain four seats in Winnipeg, five in the north, the mid-northern ridings of Dauphin and Interlake, and Brandon East in the south of the province. It is still the worst defeat that an NDP government has suffered in Manitoba.

Exit polls later revealed that new voters (i.e., immigrants and first-time voters) had polled strongly for the Liberals in Winnipeg.

Although Pawley had retired from politics and his party was reduced to third place, by constitutional convention he retained the right to remain in office until the NDP was defeated in the legislature, as well as the right to advise whether Lieutenant Governor George Johnson should appoint Filmon or Carstairs as the new premier upon leaving office. Doer also could have attempted to negotiate a coalition with the Liberals. Instead, he informally reached a deal with Filmon in which the NDP would tolerate a Tory minority government. As a result, Pawley finally resigned as Premier of Manitoba on May 9 and advised Johnson to appoint Filmon his successor. Filmon was duly sworn in later that day after advising Johnson that he could form a government.

Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	Seats			Popular Vote
Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	Before¹	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change
	Progressive Conservative	Gary Filmon	57	26	25	-3.85%	206,180	38.37%	-2.19
	Liberal	Sharon Carstairs	57	1	20	+1900%	190,913	35.52%	+21.60
	New Democratic	Gary Doer	57	30	12	-60.0%	126,954	23.62%	-17.88
	Confederation of Regions	Dennis Heeney	14	-	-	-	7,100	1.32%	-1.12
	Western Independence	Fred Cameron	16	-	-	-	2,442	0.45%	+0.45
	Progressive	Sidney Green	6	-	-	-	975	0.18%	-0.33
	Libertarian	Clancy Smith	6	-	-	-	501	0.09%	+0.09
	Communist	Lorne Robson	5	-	-	-	261	0.05%	-0.03
	Independent		11	2	-	-100%	2,084	0.39%	-0.46
Total			229	57	57	-	537,410	100%

¹ "Before" refers to standings in the Legislature at dissolution, and not to the results of the previous election. These numbers therefore reflect changes in party standings as a result of by-elections and members crossing the floor.

Popular vote

PC			38.37%
Liberal			35.52%
New Democratic			23.62%
Others			2.49%

Seats summary

PC			43.86%
Liberal			35.09%
New Democratic			21.05%

Riding results

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	NDP		PC		Liberal		Other		Incumbent
Arthur		Goldwyn Jones 575		Jim Downey 4,359		Douglas Mosset 2,171		Ross Meggison (CoR) 863		Jim Downey
Assiniboia		Robert Johannson 1,031		Ric Nordman 3,731		Ed Mandrake 3,918		Linda Cress (WIP) 166		Ric Nordman
Brandon East		Leonard Evans 3,512		Jim Armstrong 2,859		Lois Fjeldsted 2,260		Garth Shurvell (Ind) 208		Leonard Evans
Brandon West		Ishbel Solvason 2,313		James McCrae 5,039		John Worley 3,618				James McCrae
Burrows		Doug Martindale 3,005		Allan Yap 1,040		William Chornopyski 3,114		Michael Kibzey (Ind) 129 Lorne Robson (Comm) 79		Conrad Santos
Charleswood		Bruno Zimmer 1,180		Jim Ernst 6,670		Shari Nelson 5,850		David Hollins (Ind) 158		Jim Ernst
Churchill		Jay Cowan 2,396		Wayne Wittmeier 1,019		George Kernaghan 714				Jay Cowan
Concordia		Gary Doer 3,702		Vic Rubiletz 2,634		Barbara Blomeley 2,948		Bill Seman (Ind) 358 Fred Cameron (WIP) 114 Charles Henry (P) 61		Gary Doer
Dauphin		John Plohman 3,983		Russell Secord 3,435		Peter Rampton 2,475				John Plohman
Ellice		Harvey Smith 2,457		Alex Arenson 1,538		Avis Gray 3,081		Susan Caine (WIP) 109		Harvey Smith
Elmwood		Jim Maloway 3,012		Frank Syms 1,920		Ed Price 2,839		Russ Letkeman (Lbt) 113		Jim Maloway
Emerson		Kurt Penner 1,407		Albert Driedger 5,027		Martin Stadler 2,615		Jake Wall (CoR) 366		Albert Driedger
Flin Flon		Jerry Storie 2,948		Gordon Mitchell 1,563		Brian King 867				Jerry Storie
Fort Garry		Brian Pannell 1,553		Charlie Birt 5,173		Laurie Evans 6,055		Ivan Merritt (WIP) 173 Millie Lamb (Comm) 45		Charlie Birt
Fort Rouge		Roland Penner 2,912		Robert Haier 2,303		Jim Carr 5,127		Gordon Pratt (P) 75 Dennis Owens (Lbt) 66		Roland Penner
Gimli		John Bucklaschuk 3,352		Ed Helwer 4,716		Morley Murray 2,347		Eugene Klochko (WIP) 261		John Bucklaschuk
Gladstone		Fred Tait 509		Charlotte Oleson 3,760		Cordell Barker 2,132		Brian Hildebrandt (CoR) 759		Charlotte Oleson
Inkster		Don Scott 4,098		Resty Taruc 2,151		Kevin Lamoureux 4,466		Nancy Watkins (Comm) 64		Don Scott
Interlake		Bill Uruski 3,057		Ed Dandeneau 2,810		Clyde Sigurdson 1,777				Bill Uruski
Kildonan		Marty Dolin 4,542		John Baluta 5,068		Gulzar Cheema 5,653		Sidney Green (P) 445 Tracy Fuhr (WIP) 133		Marty Dolin
Kirkfield Park		Hamish Gavin 868		Gerrie Hammond 5,269		Irene Friesen 5,014				Gerrie Hammond
Lac du Bonnet		Clarence Baker 2,911		Darren Praznik 3,773		Peter Raymond 2,411				Clarence Baker
Lakeside		Eduard Hiebert 972		Harry Enns 4,475		Delmer Nott 2,828		Cam Baldwin (CoR) 864		Harry Enns
La Verendrye		Walter McDowell 708		Helmut Pankratz 4,377		Cornelius E. Goertzen 2,948				Helmut Pankratz
Logan		Maureen Hemphill 2,646		Linda Thomson 1,085		John Dobbin 1,660		Barry Marchand (Ind) 81 Frank Goldspink (Comm) 46		Maureen Hemphill
Minnedosa		Susan Proven 1,476		Harold Gilleshammer 3,669		Terry Drebit 2,496		Dennis Heeney (CoR) 820		Dave Blake
Morris		Clifford Hodgins 449		Clayton Manness 4,578		Barbara Plas 1,832		Raymond Switzer (CoR) 597 Jeffrey Plas (Ind) 57		Clayton Manness
Niakwa		Stan Williams 2,026		Abe Kovnats 7,222		Herold Driedger 8,576		Lyle Cruickshank (WIP) 237		Abe Kovnats
Osborne		Muriel Smith 2,753		Rosemary Vodrey 2,421		Reg Alcock 4,334		Clancy Smith (Lbt) 145		Muriel Smith
Pembina		Hans Wittich 382		Don Orchard 6,043		Marilyn Skubovius 2,171		Abe Giesbrecht (CoR) 499		Don Orchard
Portage la Prairie		Bill Zettler 722		Ed Connery 4,020		Darlene Hamm 2,812		Irene Armishaw (CoR) 603		Ed Connery
Radisson		Gerard Lecuyer 3,113		John Samborski 3,049		Allan Patterson 4,918				Gerard Lecuyer
Rhineland		Reg Loeppky 341		Jack Penner 5,166		Walter Hebert 1,059				Arnold Brown
Riel		Bob Ages 1,834		Gerry Ducharme 4,289		Chris Sigurdson 3,965		John Hiebert (CoR) 121 Neil Knight (WIP) 75		Gerry Ducharme
River East		Michael Dyck 3,019		Bonnie Mitchelson 7,563		Morley Golden 3,805		Niel Friesen (WIP) 233		Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights		Harry Daniels 1,036		Bob Vandewater 3,373		Sharon Carstairs 6,620		Jim Weidman (Lbt) 62		Sharon Carstairs
Roblin-Russell		Dennis Trinder 1,973		Len Derkach 4,030		Neil Stewart 2,513				Len Derkach
Rossmere		Vic Schroeder 3,424		Harold Neufeld 3,950		Cecilia Connelly 2,851		Chris Dondo (WIP) 146		Vic Schroeder
Rupertsland		Elijah Harper 2,206		Joe Guy Wood 1,419		Maurice Berens 638				Elijah Harper
St. Boniface		Lorette Beaudry-Ferland 2,061		Guy Savoie 1,586		Neil Gaudry 5,743				Laurent Desjardins
St. James		Allan MacDonald 2,171		Jae Eadie 3,360		Paul Edwards 3,939		Fred Debrecen (CoR) 137 Charles Lamont (P) 74 Dennis Rice (Lbt) 69 Merle Hartlin (WIP) 62		Al Mackling
St. Johns		Judy Wasylycia-Leis 3,092		Lynn Filbert 1,222		Ruth Oberman 2,480		Cyril Fogel (P) 171 Roy Price (Ind) 68 Gerald Zucawich (Ind) 35		Judy Wasylycia-Leis
St. Norbert		Bennetta Benson 1,460		Gerry Mercier 5,695		John Angus 6,073				Gerry Mercier
St. Vital		Gerri Unwin 2,282		Paul Herriot 3,614		Bob Rose 4,431		Katharina Cameron (WIP) 123 Trevor Wiebe (Lbt) 46		Jim Walding
Ste. Rose		Gerald Follows 1,464		Glen Cummings 3,723		Brent Johnson 2,631		David Mutch 249		Glen Cummings
Selkirk		Terry Sargeant 3,637		Eugene Kinaschuk 3,138		Gwen Charles 3,821		Ruth VanKoeveringe (WIP) 214		Howard Pawley
Seven Oaks		Eugene Kostyra 3,553		George Finkle 1,636		Mark Minenko 3,885				Eugene Kostyra
Springfield		Andy Anstett 3,749		Gilles Roch 5,815		Lance Laufer 3,806				Gilles Roch
Sturgeon Creek		Len Sawatsky 993		Frank Johnston 4,174		Iva Yeo 4,833		Hugh Buskell (CoR) 158 Nigel Hanrahan (Comm) 27		Frank Johnston
Swan River		Len Harapiak 3,446		Parker Burrell 4,115		Don Dennis 653				Len Harapiak
The Pas		Harry Harapiak 3,221		Bruce Unfried 1,584		Scott Gray 1,426				Harry Harapiak
Thompson		Steve Ashton 2,992		Ken Collin 1,989		Janice Pronteau 1,240				Steve Ashton
Transcona		Wilson Parasiuk 3,191		Bill Omiucke 2,270		Richard Kozak 3,900		Ray Hargreaves (Ind) 121		Wilson Parasiuk
Turtle Mountain		John Miller 446		Denis Rocan 3,208		Ross McMillan 2,610		Rod Stephenson (Ind) 767 Harold Parsonage (CoR) 476 Bill Harrison (Ind) 102 William Comer (WIP) 87		Denis Rocan
Tuxedo		Catherine Hofman 714		Gary Filmon 6,427		Jasper McKee 6,303		R. EisBrenner (WIP) 149		Gary Filmon
Virden		Louise Leask 967		Glen Findlay 4,459		Bill Davison 2,043		Alex Gabrielle (CoR) 588 Terry Drul (WIP) 160		Glen Findlay
Wolseley		Myrna Phillips 3,112		Kirk Stanley 1,579		Harold Taylor 3,618		Derek Shettler (P) 149		Myrna Phillips

Post-election changes

Gilles Roch (PC) becomes (L) on September 8, 1988.

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	PC	Liberal	NDP	Others	Sample size	Margin of error	Polling method
Polling firm	Last date of polling				Others	Sample size	Margin of error	Polling method
Angus Reid^[8]	April 12, 1988	43	34	22	1	818	3.5%	Telephone
Angus Reid^[9]	March 14, 1988	48	32	19	1	806	3.5%	Telephone
U of M^[10]	October 10, 1987	36.7	23.3	37.3	2.7	1,090	3.0%	Telephone
Western Opinion^[11]	March 26, 1987	36	28	33	3	500	4.5%	Telephone

References

^ "26 April, Today in Canadian history".
^ Rastin, Sandra; Reshef, Yonatan (2003). Unions in the time of revolution: government restructuring in Alberta and Ontario. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. pp. 254–5. ISBN 0-8020-8753-1.
^ Adams, Christopher P. (2008). Politics in Manitoba: parties, leaders, and voters. [Winnipeg]: University of Manitoba Press. ISBN 978-0-88755-704-0.
^ "Maverick topples Pawley's NDP in Manitoba vote". The Globe and Mail. March 9, 1988. p. A1.
^ "Manitoba NDP dip recorded in survey". The Vancouver Sun. October 15, 1987. p. A9.
^ York, Geoffrey (June 13, 1987). "Manitoba gets reform as Pawley bows to left". The Globe and Mail. p. A3.
^ ^a ^b York, Geoffrey (April 13, 1987). "Tories leading NDP in new Manitoba poll". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
^ "Manitoba PCs still lead polls NDP dead last". The Gazette. April 21, 1988. p. B1.
^ MacQueen, Ken (March 16, 1988). "NDP headed for defeat in Manitoba, poll shows". The Vancouver Sun. p. A2.
^ "Manitoba NDP dip recorded in survey". The Vancouver Sun. October 15, 1987. p. A9.
^ York, Geoffrey (April 13, 1987). "Tories leading NDP in new Manitoba poll". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.