Draft:VoteHub

  • Comment: This article is poorly written, contains several typos, is too heavily reliant on primary sources, and leans too much on passing mentions with its secondary sources. OutlawRun (talk) 15:38, 11 August 2026 (UTC)
  • Comment: This draft still reads more like a brochure about the company than an encyclopedia article. Further, you must cite sources which discuss the company in detail. JavaHurricane 05:22, 5 August 2026 (UTC)
  • Comment: Fails WP:GNG or WP:NCORP. The draft still reads a bit like promotion. If you have any connection to the subject, please review WP:COI. Accesscrawl (talk) 19:45, 1 August 2026 (UTC)


VoteHub
TypePrivate
IndustryPolitical media
Founded2024
FoundersGarrett Herrin
Austin Park
Varun Vishwanath
Luke Wines
Area served
United States
Key people
Garrett Herrin (CEO)
Zachary Donnini (Head of Data Science)
Websitevotehub.com

VoteHub is an American political media and data organization focused on U.S. elections. It publishes election forecasts, polling averages, live results and maps, political and demographic data, and analysis; develops election-modeling tools; and provides data and consulting services.[1] Founded in 2024, VoteHub states that it is nonpartisan and independent.[1]

History

VoteHub grew out of the online “Election Twitter” community on X. Garrett Herrin created the VoteHub account on April 22, 2024, with Austin Park and Varun Vishwanath collaborating on precinct-level election mapping. Luke Wines joined the project in July. VoteHub was formally incorporated on October 7, 2024, with Herrin, Park, Vishwanath, and Wines as co-founders.[1]

During the 2024 election cycle, VoteHub developed an audience primarily through social media while publishing election maps, polling analysis, data visualizations, and other election coverage.[1][2] During the presidential campaign, it worked with ABC News on a tracker documenting members of Congress who had publicly commented on whether President Joe Biden should withdraw from the race.[3] The project was featured by FiveThirtyEight, which separately highlighted VoteHub's tracker of presidential campaign events.[4]

In 2025, VoteHub increased its focus on data science and expanded into election modeling. Zachary Donnini, then with Decision Desk HQ, began contributing during the summer and joined full-time as head of data science in December, leading work on polling, forecasting, and election analysis.[1][5][6][7] Donnini had previously co-authored Decision Desk HQ's 2024 election forecast.[8]

That September, VoteHub began working with prediction-market operator Kalshi, providing polling data, political race intelligence, and consulting services.[9][10]

VoteHub expanded its election-modeling work in 2026, launching a national midterm forecast in May and releasing MapLab, an interactive election-modeling tool, in July.[11] The organization began working with CBS News on coverage of the 2026 midterm election cycle, including maps used by the CBS News Data Desk.[12][13] It also worked with the Portland Press Herald on detailed town-level maps for Maine's 2026 primary elections.[14]

Election forecasting

VoteHub's 2026 midterm forecast covers U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial races.[11][15] Its primary “Complete” model combines polling and political fundamentals with prediction-market data from Kalshi and ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and The Cook Political Report.[16][15] A separate “Legacy” model uses polling and political fundamentals without the prediction-market and expert-rating inputs included in the “Complete” model.[16]

The methodology cites the potential for feedback loops between VoteHub's forecast and prediction markets as a reason for maintaining the “Legacy” model independently of prediction-market prices.[16] VoteHub publishes county- and precinct-level estimates from the “Complete” model, along with modeled voting patterns across demographic groups.[11] Changes in individual races are incorporated into simulations of party control of the House and Senate.[15][17]

Website and products

VoteHub's website publishes polling averages, election data and maps, interactive modeling tools, and political analysis.[1] Its polling coverage includes presidential approval and favorability, the generic congressional ballot, and primary and general elections.[18] The averaging methodology weights polls by recency and pollster quality, adjusts for historical house effects, and limits the influence of pollsters that release multiple surveys in the same race.[18] In 2024, its presidential averages excluded officially partisan polls; a comparison of major polling averages found that VoteHub, Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, Split Ticket, and The New York Times differed by no more than half a percentage point in their national and battleground-state margins.[19][2]

A public polling API allows selected data to be reused with attribution, excluding U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial polls.[20] Kalshi displays VoteHub polling averages as part of its midterm-election platform.[10] Pollster Scorecards evaluate polling organizations using multiple measures of historical performance and are incorporated into the weighting used in VoteHub's polling averages.[18] The methodology behind the scorecards was presented at the 2026 annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.[21]

Election mapping is another major component of the site. Live results and maps are published as votes are reported, alongside historical resources including a precinct-level map of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.[14][22] Interactive projects include MapLab, the Senate Scenario Builder, Electoral Map Builder, CivicTracker, and trackers covering congressional endorsements and redistricting.[23]

VoteHub's election-data tools have also been used in litigation involving racial voting patterns; an expert in a 2025 New York congressional redistricting case relied on VoteHub's ecological-inference methodology in his analysis.[24]

Data-driven research published by VoteHub has examined early voting, turnout, demographics, redistricting, and electoral behavior. Early-vote analysis tracks turnout and partisan composition in individual elections where voter-file data permit it.[25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]

Precinct-level and demographic research has included analysis of Hispanic voting patterns in Texas[33] and the geographic and demographic patterns of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary.[34] Longer-form work has examined turnout in the 2025 elections,[35] changes in Black voter participation following Louisiana v. Callais and subsequent redistricting efforts,[36] and partisan registration among professional athletes.[37][38]

Trump Score tracks how frequently members of Congress vote in alignment with President Donald Trump's stated positions.[39][40]

VoteHub Pro is the organization's paid subscription service, providing access to additional election data and modeling features, including county- and precinct-level forecast estimates, demographic estimates, detailed early-vote dashboards, and some in-depth analysis.[41]

Organization and reach

Social media is a major distribution channel for VoteHub's election coverage and analysis. The organization maintains accounts on X, Threads, Instagram, and Bluesky; by August 2026, it had nearly 100,000 followers on X.[42][43][44][45]

VoteHub has served as a host organization for the Director's Internship Program at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.[46]

Ad Fontes Media has rated VoteHub with a political-bias score of −1.02 and a reliability score of 43.09.[47]

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f "What is VoteHub?". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  2. ^ a b Edsall, Thomas B. (4 September 2024). "How the Presidential Election Got This Close". The New York Times. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  3. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (10 July 2024). "What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common". ABC News. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  4. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel; Marriner, Katie (10 October 2024). "Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris". ABC News. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  5. ^ Tim Dickinson (15 June 2026). "What 'the Math' Says About the Midterms". The Contrarian (Podcast). Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  6. ^ Jill Wine-Banks (16 June 2026). "How Polling Works with Zachary Donnini from VoteHub". Politicon (Podcast). Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  7. ^ Novicoff, Marc (26 February 2026). "Trump's Favorite Voter-ID Bill Would Probably Backfire". The Atlantic. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  8. ^ Donnini, Zachary. "GOP trifecta? Introducing the Decision Desk HQ 2024 Election Forecast Model". LinkedIn. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  9. ^ "Kalshi Partners with VoteHub to Integrate Markets and Polling Data". Prediction News. 18 September 2025. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  10. ^ a b Sen, Anirban; Srivastava, Prakhar (22 July 2026). "Kalshi debuts US midterms hub for election forecasts and polling data". Reuters. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  11. ^ a b c Donnini, Zachary (4 May 2026). "Introducing The 2026 VoteHub Midterm Forecast". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  12. ^ "CBS News Data Desk will be using VoteHub's maps in its coverage of the Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic Primary". X. VoteHub. 4 August 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  13. ^ Michigan's Democratic Senate race comes to a head as multiple states hold primaries | Special Report. CBS News. 4 August 2026. Event occurs at 19:57. Retrieved 16 August 2026 – via YouTube.
  14. ^ a b "Live Now: Maine statewide and local election results". Portland Press Herald. 9 June 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  15. ^ a b c Galen Druke (15 June 2026). "What The Early 2026 Midterm Forecasts Say". GD Politics (Podcast). Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  16. ^ a b c The VoteHub 2026 Midterm Forecasting Model (PDF) (Report). VoteHub. April 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  17. ^ Galen Druke (9 July 2026). "What Platner's Exit Means For Control Of The Senate". GD Politics (Podcast). Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  18. ^ a b c "How Our Polling Averages Work". VoteHub. 17 January 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  19. ^ McKown-Dawson, Eli (16 October 2024). "Are Republican pollsters "flooding the zone?"". Silver Bulletin. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  20. ^ "Access Political Polls via API". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  21. ^ VoteHub's Pollster Scorecards: A Multi-Metric Framework for Evaluating Pollster Performance across Election Cycles. 81st Annual AAPOR Conference. American Association for Public Opinion Research. 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  22. ^ "The 2024 Election at a Precinct Level". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  23. ^ "Projects". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  24. ^ "Supplemental Appendix to Williams Petitioner-Respondents' Response in Opposition to Emergency Applications for Interim Stay and Stay Pending Appeal" (PDF). Supreme Court of the United States. 19 February 2026. Suppl. App. 30–31. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  25. ^ Elliott, Philip (4 March 2026). "Why James Talarico's Win Puts Texas in Play For November". Time. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  26. ^ "James Talarico projected to win Texas Democratic Senate primary, defeating Jasmine Crockett". CBS News. 4 March 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  27. ^ Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels; McIntire, Mary Ellen (30 October 2025). "At the Races: When the pain hits home". Roll Call. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  28. ^ "Texas Democrats set new turnout record in heated primary". Austin American-Statesman. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  29. ^ "Texas midterm primary early voting ends, turnout up". El Paso Times. 2 March 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  30. ^ Wildstein, David. "Over 400,000 mail-in ballots in New Jersey so far". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  31. ^ Wildstein, David. "About 6.3% of N.J. voters have already voted in '25 election". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  32. ^ Wildstein, David. "Over 39,000 votes already cast in NJ-11 special election". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  33. ^ Prazan, Phil (10 February 2026). "Hispanic voters swung big to Democrat in Tarrant County election upset". NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  34. ^ "L.A. divided: Bass, Pratt and Raman dominated in different parts of the city". Los Angeles Times. 6 June 2026. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  35. ^ Yang, Tia; Radcliffe, Mary (27 January 2026). "Off-Year Turnout Hit a 20-Year High in 2025". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  36. ^ Walker, Adria R. (30 July 2026). "Republican disenfranchisement bid drives Black voters to polls, study finds". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  37. ^ Wickman, Kase (12 August 2026). "How Sophie Cunningham Became a MAGA Fixation and the WNBA's Lightning Rod". Vanity Fair. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  38. ^ Talbot, Michael (21 January 2026). "NHL's American players among the most right-leaning in pro sports: Report". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  39. ^ Yang, Tia (2 February 2026). "Is Your Member of Congress Aligned With Trump?". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  40. ^ Bhutani, Anvee. "The Gap Between John Fetterman and the Democrats Is Widening". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  41. ^ Herrin, Garrett (4 May 2026). "Introducing VoteHub Pro". VoteHub. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  42. ^ "VoteHub (@VoteHub)". X. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  43. ^ "VoteHub (@votehubus)". Threads. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  44. ^ "VoteHub (@votehubus)". Instagram. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  45. ^ "VoteHub (@votehub.com)". Bluesky. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  46. ^ "VoteHub". Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. Retrieved 12 August 2026.
  47. ^ "Interactive Media Bias Chart". Ad Fontes Media. Retrieved 12 August 2026.

Category:American political websites Category:Internet properties established in 2024 Category:2024 establishments in the United States Category:News aggregators Category:Aggregation websites

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