Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus Ltd.
Company type	Private limited company
Industry	Market research; Opinion polling; Political Consulting
Founded	2016
Founders	Martin Baxter
Headquarters	London, England, UK
Area served	United Kingdom
Website	electoralcalculus.co.uk

Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy and pollster, known for its political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It uses MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) to combine national factors and local demographics.

Main features

Electoral Calculus was founded and is run by Martin Baxter,^[1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling.^[2] The Electoral Calculus website includes election data, predictions and analysis. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland.^[3]

Methodology

The election predictions are based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography.^[1] Up to 2017, it used a modified^[4] uniform national swing,^[5] and it took account of national polls and trends but excluded local issues.^[6]

Since 2019, they have used MRP (Multi-Level Regression and Post-Stratification) methods to make their election predictions. Their model uses demographic, past voting behaviour and geographic data to estimate predicted vote shares on a seat-by-seat basis. The models are explained in detail on the web site.^[7]

Predictions

Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).^[8]

Reception

In 2004, the site was listed by The Guardian as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.^[9] With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley^[10] and Michael White of The Guardian.^[11] John Rentoul of The Independent referred to the site after the election.^[12]

References

^ ^a ^b "Electoral Calculus". Intute. Retrieved 17 October 2011. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.
^ Ruppert, Evelyn (16 April 2010). "Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election". CReSC: The Social Life of Methods. Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change. Archived from the original on 10 September 2011. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
^ "Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet". School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy website. Keele University. Retrieved 6 February 2014.
^ Baxter, Martin (28 October 2007). "Strong Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 5 April 2012. Retrieved 17 October 2011.
^ Young, Toby (7 May 2010). "Who predicted the result correctly?". The Daily Telegraph. London. Archived from the original on 8 May 2010. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
^ "MP's on course to lose his seat". thisiskent.co.uk. 27 April 2012. Archived from the original on 5 May 2013. Retrieved 24 May 2012.
^ Baxter, Martin (14 November 2020). "Regression Analysis". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 22 July 2024.
^ "UK Election Data 1955-2019". view.officeapps.live.com. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
^ "Cream of the crop". The Guardian. 16 December 2004. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
^ Rawnsley, Andrew (22 November 2009). "Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
^ White, Michael (30 April 2010). "Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?
^ Rentoul, John (17 October 2010). "John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away". The Independent. Retrieved 28 May 2012.