It was originally expected to be a very safe Liberal seat; northern Sydney has been the power base for the Liberals and their predecessors for over a century. However, it was held by independents from 1981 to 1991—most notably Ted Mack from 1981 to 1988. The Liberals did not take the seat until 1991, but have held it with virtually no difficulty since then.
While Labor frequently runs dead in northern Sydney, North Shore is very unfriendly territory for Labor even by northern Sydney standards. Labor has never tallied more than 37 percent of the two-party vote. In the last four elections, Labor candidates have been pushed into third place, and have struggled to get to 20 percent of the primary vote.