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George Modelski

George Modelski
Born
Jerzy Modelski

(1926-01-09)January 9, 1926[2]
Poznań
DiedFebruary 21, 2014(2014-02-21) (aged 88)[3][1]
Washington, D. C.
Occupation(s)Political scientist, professor
Academic background
EducationPh. D. (1955), University of London[1]
George Modelski

George Modelski was Professor of political science in the University of Washington.[4] Modelski was a professor there from 1967 to 1995.[1]

Before working at the University of Washington, Modelski was a senior research fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the Australian National University.[1]

Modelski did work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution.[5] He was a neorealist.[6] In 2012 he was awarded with the Bronze Kondratieff Medal[7] by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Long cycles theory

George Modelski devised a cyclical theory of world leadership. [8] Each cycle is about 100 years' duration and a new hegemonic power appears each time.

The five world leaders

Portugal 1492-1580; in the Age of Discovery

the Netherlands 1580-1688; beginning with the Eighty Years' War, 1579-1588

United Kingdom (1) 1688-1792; beginning with the wars of Louis XIV

United Kingdom (2) 1792-1914; beginning with the French Revolution and Napoleonic wars

the United States 1914 to (predicted) 2030; beginning with World War I and two.[9]

The four phases of the cycle

1, Global War, which a) involves almost all global powers, b) is 'characteristically naval' [10] c) is caused by a system breakdown, d) is extremely lethal, e) results in a new global leader, capable of tackling global problems.[11] The war is a 'decision process' analogous to a national election.[12] The emerging global power typically enjoys a 'good war' with undamaged domestic infrastructure and a booming economy. [13]

The Thirty Years War, though lasting and destructive, was not a 'global war' [14]

2, World Power, which lasts for 'about one generation'.[15] The new incumbent power 'prioritises global problems', mobilises a coalition, is decisive and innovative.[16] For example, the UK after 1815 acted against the transatlantic slave trade and led the Congress system; the US after 1945 co-founded the UN, the IMF, GATT, and the Bretton Woods system.

Pre-modern communities become dependent on the hegemonic power [17]

3, Delegitimation. This phase can last for 20–27 years; the hegemonic power falters, as rival powers assert new nationalistic policies.[18]

4, Deconcentration. The hegemony's problem-solving capacity declines. It yields to a multipolar order of warring rivals. Pre-modern communities become less dependent.[19]

The role of the 'challenger'

In the deconcentration phase a rival state or challenger, isolated and fearing encirclement [20] , appears. Spain challenged Portugal; Louis XIV and France challenged the Netherlands; Napoleon Bonaparte sought to bring down the UK; Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II and Hitler brought an end to British hegemony for a second time. Writing in 1987, Modelski forecast that the USSR would challenge American power from 2030, in a new global war. [9]

Why challengers have failed

World leader nations tend to have: 'insular geography' and a strong naval power providing 'global reach'; a stable, open society; a strong economy; strategic organisation, and strong political parties. By contrast, the 'challenger' nations have: closed systems; absolute rulers; domestic instability; continental geographic locations; and weaker naval power.[21]

Origins and evolution

According to Modelski, the cycle originated in about 1493 through a) the decline of Venetian naval power, b) Chinese abandonment of naval exploration, and c) discovery of sea routes to India and the Americas.[22] It has developed in parallel with the growth of the nation-state, political parties, command of the sea, and 'dependency of pre-modern communities'.[23] The system is flawed, lacking in coherence or solidarity; it also fails to address the North-South divide.[24]

Function

Modelski wrote that the cycle is a 'learning process' and a 'motor of modernity', providing leadership on a global scale. [25] The cycle ushers in new waves of innovation in orderly fashion. Awareness of the cycle provides a balanced perspective, and a counter to the widespread belief in global anarchy. [26]

Forecasts

Modelski speculates that US deconcentration might be replaced by a power based in the 'Pacific rim' or by an explicit coalition of nations, as 'co-operation is urgently required in respect of nuclear weapons'.[27] It is possible for the US to become world leader a second time, as Britain did in the 19th century. [28]

Critical response

Modelski 'dismisses the idea that international relations are anarchic'. His research, influenced by Immanuel Wallerstein, was 'measured in decades... a major achievement' says Peter J. Taylor[29]

Colin Flint saw several flaws in the argument. It is deterministic, incapable of prediction; 'Portugal's 16th century history does not determine the US's 21st century future.' Modelski took a state-centric view which focused on rich countries and ignored the Global South. Flint also questions whether naval power is still relevant in a time of cruise missiles, satellites and drones. [30]

Chinese leaders reject the idea of hegemony, and use the word as an insult. [31]

Joshua S Goldstein says however that long cycles are not mechanistic or deterministic, but 'evolutionary and dynamic' and therefore do have predictive power. [32]

Books

  • Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, 2008, co-editor, ISBN 978-0-415-77361-4;
  • World Cities -3000 to 2000, 2003, ISBN 0-9676230-1-4;
  • Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics with William R. Thompson, 1996, ISBN 1-57003-054-5
  • World System History: The social science of long-term change, 2000, co-editor, ISBN 0-415-23276-7;
  • Documenting Global Leadership1988, co-editor, ISBN 0-333-46495-8;
  • Seapower in global politics, 1494-1993, 1988, with William R. Thompson, ISBN 0-333-42925-7;
  • Long Cycles in World Politics 1987 ISBN 0-295-96430-8; Japanese edition "Sekai shisutemu no dotai", 1991, ISBN 4-7710-0510-9;
  • Exploring Long Cycles, 1987, ISBN 0-931477-98-0;
  • North-South Relations, 1983, co-editor, ISBN 0-03-062822-9;
  • Transnational Corporations and World Order,1979, editor, ISBN 0-7167-1025-0;
  • Multinational Corporations and World Order, 1972, editor, ISBN 0-8039-0317-0
  • Principles of world politics 1972, LOC card No. 70-163237;
  • A theory of foreign policy 1962, LOC card no.62-12472
  • SEATO: Six Studies, editor, 1962.

References

  1. ^ a b c d "Archived copy". www.polisci.washington.edu. Archived from the original on 13 November 2014. Retrieved 20 July 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^ Biographical Directory. American Political Science Association. 1973. p. 335.
  3. ^ "Passing of George Modelski". polisci.washington.edu/. University of Washington. Archived from the original on 23 February 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2014.
  4. ^ "George Modelski". The Evolutionary World Politics Homepage (Official). Archived from the original on May 20, 2007. Retrieved October 18, 2013.
  5. ^ George Modelski. "World System Evolution". Retrieved October 18, 2013.
  6. ^ Hobson, John M. (2000). The State and International Relations. Cambridge University Press. p. 189. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511612442. ISBN 978-0-521-64354-2.
  7. ^ "The International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation". Ikf2010.ru. Archived from the original on October 12, 2013. Retrieved October 18, 2013.
  8. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p8
  9. ^ a b George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p40
  10. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p101
  11. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p43-6
  12. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p36-7
  13. ^ Colin Flint, Introduction to geopolitics, Routledge, 2011, chapter 7 (appendix in later editions)
  14. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p45
  15. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p157
  16. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p14, 83, 93
  17. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, chapter 8
  18. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p40, p119
  19. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p119-20, p207
  20. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p33
  21. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p90, p220-5, chapter 7
  22. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p41-3, p95
  23. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, chapters 6, 7, 8; p153
  24. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p201
  25. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p10, 47, chapter 5
  26. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p1
  27. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p41-3, p230-33
  28. ^ George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, University of Washington, 1987, p229, 232
  29. ^ Book reviews : Modelski, G. 1987: Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan. 244 pp. £29.50 cloth - Peter J. Taylor, 1989 (sagepub.com)
  30. ^ Colin Flint, Introduction to geopolitics, Routledge, 2011, chapter 7 (relegated to an appendix in later editions)
  31. ^ Goldstein and Pevehouse, International Relations, Longman 2007, p82
  32. ^ https://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcyc14.pdf p349
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