The Hwasong-15[a] (Korean: 《화성-15》형; Hancha: 火星 15型; lit. Mars Type 15) is an intercontinental ballistic missile developed by North Korea. It had its maiden flight on 28 November 2017,[8] around 3 a.m. local time. It is the first ballistic missile developed by North Korea that is theoretically capable of reaching all of the United States' mainland.[9]
Design
Missile
Based on its trajectory and distance, the missile would have a range of more than 13,000 km (8,100 mi) – more than enough to reach Washington D.C. and the rest of the United States, albeit, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, probably with a reduced payload.[3][10] Several important US allies, including the United Kingdom, France and Australia, also lie within the missile's theoretical range, which covers most of Earth's land masses except South America, the Caribbean, and the majority of Antarctica.[11][12]
The different densities of different casing materials and explosive mechanisms (e.g. metallic-based conventional explosives tend to be several times heavier than a corresponding volume of organic explosives) make accurately estimating warhead payload based on images alone very difficult, if not impossible. Based on the limited information available, the Union of Concerned Scientists did conclude that equipping the missile with a normal-sized payload would likely reduce the overall range.[13][14]
Engine
According to international weapons analysts,[15] the Hwasong-15 first stage has a gimbaled two-chambered main engine system, as opposed to the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 which have one fixed main chamber and four gimbaled steering vernier thruster chambers.[16]
The second-stage engine for the Hwasong-15 was test-fired on 23 June 2017.[17][18][19]
According to missile specialist Norbert Brügge, the missile uses the Paektusan (백두산) engine, the first stage of the two-stage missile uses an RD-250 clone liquid propulsion system developed by Pyongyang, comprising two combustors fed by common turbopump to increase takeoff thrust. The new propulsion is estimated to have 170 percent increase in thrust, compared to the Hwasong-14.[20]
Warhead
On 29 November 2017, Michael Elleman wrote for 38 North that at 13,000 km (8,100 mi), the payload would be around 150 kg (330 lb), based on flight data of the test and conjectured it was a reconfigured Hwasong-14.[21] On 30 November, after the publication of the images and video of the launch, he wrote a subsequent article on 38 North in which he stated that he first visualized the design of the missile based solely on flight data. After seeing the images and video, Elleman increased the maximum estimate of payload from 150 kg (330 lb) to 1,000 kg (2,200 lb) at a range of 13,000 km (8,100 mi). He noted major differences in the design of the actual Hwasong-15 and the missile he visualized the day before, from the dimensions to two nozzles/engine instead of one, such as on the Hwasong-14.[2]
Analysts have noted that the re-entry vehicle has a blunter nose than previous designs, which can accommodate a larger diameter warhead and reduces re-entry stress and heating at the cost of accuracy.[14] Some analysts think it may be able to carry additional payloads such as decoys or even multiple warheads.[22]
Launch vehicle
The 9-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicle is larger compared to the 8-axle TEL vehicle of the Hwasong-14. However, just like the Hwasong-14, the launch footage from November 2017 test indicates the missile was fired from a fixed launch pad, not from the vehicle.[23][24][25][26]
Immediately after the launch, many analysts assumed that a Hwasong-14 had been fired; subsequently, however, the North Korean government released video of the launch showing a completely different missile.[28]
North Korea claimed the missile reached an altitude of around 4,475 km (2,781 mi) and traveled 950 km (590 mi) downrange, flying for a total time of 53 minutes.[10]
It was the first launch after a 10-week break.[29]
According to a statement by Japanese Minister of Defence Itsunori Onodera, the missile's re-entry vehicle failed to successfully re-enter the Earth's atmosphere, breaking apart and crashing into waters within Japan's exclusive economic zone.[30] Later assessments from the Union of Concerned Scientists, however, raised questions as to whether the object Onodera described may have been the missile's detached first stage, not its re-entry vehicle.[31][32]
It was reported that the missile traveled up to a maximum altitude of 5,768.5 km (3,584.4 mi) and flew 989 km (615 mi) for nearly 67 minutes before striking at its target in open waters of the Sea of Japan. The country rated this test as "Excellent" in the assessment.[34]
North Korea launched an ICBM on 3 November 2022 from Sunan area toward to the east. Initially, South Korea assumed the missile as Hwasong-17.[35] The missile flew for 30 minutes with maximum speed of Mach 15, with a range of about 750 km and an altitude of about 2,000 km; it disappeared from the radar before going over the Japan. This could be a launch failure, as the missile appears to be failed after second stage separation and falling into the sea.[36][37]
On 7 November 2022, North Korea released information and images for missile launches from 2 to 5 November. The ICBM launch of 3 November was referred as the launch of "a ballistic missile to paralyze enemy operation command systems". Images released by North Korea indicated that the missile could be a modified and shortened version of Hwasong-15, with an elongated shroud, a shortened first stage, and a possible third stage.[35][36] It was unofficially named as Hwasong-15A[38] or Hwasong-15B.[39]
.jpg)
