State Navigate, originally rendered as CNalysis, is an American political website and nonpartisan 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that specializes in elections for state governments. Unique among election forecasters, it is the only group that predicts state legislative elections down to the district level.[1][2] It was launched in 2020 by Chaz Nuttycombe, who has run the website mostly while he was a political science student at Virginia Tech.[3]
A June 2024 article announced that CNalysis planned to move operations to State Navigate in December 2024, following the 2024 United States elections.[4] In addition to forecasting state legislative election outcomes and calculating, gathering and publishing related election data for them, State Navigate will conduct polling on the state legislative level, curate news in state legislatures, hire state house reporters, calculate the ideology of legislators, and display comprehensive bill and campaign finance databases.
2020 Elections
CNalysis launched on March 1, 2020, after beginning development in October 2019.[5] Nuttycombe was joined with its original staff: cofounder "cinyc9," Nuttycombe's Geographic information system tutor, as well as editor Allie Geier, oddsmaker Jackson Martin, and graphics designer Blaine Monroe. In July, campaign finance analyst Chris Leonchik was brought on board. In December, jhkforecasts founder Jack Kersting joined the team as the co-forecaster.
CNalysis successfully predicted a Joe Biden victory as well as 47/50 states for the Presidential election that year. They unsuccessfully predicted that Joe Biden would win the states of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida, all of which were rated "Tilt Democratic," representing a 60% chance Biden would win those states.[6] All 3 states were instead won by Donald Trump. In the Senate, they successfully predicted a Democratic majority in the Senate, while missing 4/35 seats, unsuccessfully predicting Democratic victories in North Carolina and Maine, and Republican victories in the Georgia runoffs. In the US House, they missed 25 out of the 435 seats in the chamber. In the 11 gubernatorial elections, they successfully predicted every race.
In the state legislative elections that year, they correctly predicted 78/86 state legislative chambers, missing the Texas House, Michigan House, Iowa House, Minnesota Senate, as well as both chambers in the Arizona and New Hampshire legislature, where Republicans won majorities in each.[7] They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,285 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,545 seats they cast a rating for (93%). Out of the 1,033 seats they identified as competitive (including 15 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 773 seats, or 75%.[8]
2021 Elections
CNalysis migrated its website from Squarespace to WordPress on its first anniversary and debuted its new logo. It launched a newsletter on Substack and a podcast.
CNalysis was the first forecasting outlet to post a prediction that had Glenn Youngkin as the favorite to win the Virginia Governor's race, giving Youngkin a "Tilt R" rating, representing a 60% chance of victory. They unsuccessfully predicted Democratic victories in the races for Virginia Lieutenant Governor and Virginia Attorney General, giving Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Lieutenant Governor's race and a 70% chance of winning the Attorney General race. They also successfully predicted the race for New Jersey Governor, expecting a Phil Murphy victory.
In the state legislative elections, they successfully predicted the outcome of 123 out of 129 contested state legislative seats between the Virginia House of Delegates and the New Jersey Senate. They successfully predicted that Republicans would flip the Virginia House of Delegates with a 52–48 majority, but missed 4/100 seats in the chamber, with both parties pulling off an upset in two each.[9] In the New Jersey Senate, they successfully predicted a Democratic majority while missing 2 seats in the chamber.
2022 Elections
In 2022, CNalysis had the best US House forecast compared to any other outlet that eliminates Toss-Up ratings, missing 16/435 seats and predicting a 230-205 Republican House. In the US Senate, they successfully predicted 34/36 seats, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in Nevada and Pennsylvania. They successfully predicted 32/36 gubernatorial elections that year, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in Oregon, Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
In their state legislative forecasts, they successfully predicted 83 out of 88 state legislative chambers up that year, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in the Pennsylvania House as well as both chambers of the Michigan and Minnesota legislature. They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,380 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,569 seats they cast a rating for (95%). Out of the 1,284 seats they identified as competitive (including 3 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 1,095 seats, or 85%.
2023 Elections
CNalysis earned recognition in 2023 for correctly predicting all 100 results in the 2023 Virginia House of Delegates election and all 40 results in the 2023 Virginia Senate election.[2][10] On election night, the website debuted a new feature built by Kersting: a live projection of who is favored to win control of the Virginia legislature as precinct results rolled in.[11]
They successfully predicted the outcome of the gubernatorial elections in Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky that year, as well as 277 out of 284 contested state legislative seats (98% correct) between the states of Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Louisiana. When filtering by the 63 seats they identified as competitive in these states, or 89% of seats right.
2024 Elections
Nuttycombe and co-forecaster Jack Kersting finished their education in May 2024.
For the 2024 United States presidential election, CNalysis incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win by roughly 308 electoral votes with a 70% chance of victory.[12] They forecasted a 60% chance of a Democratic victory in Nevada and North Carolina (tilting Democratic), a 70% chance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (leaning Democratic), and an 80% chance in Georgia and Michigan (likely Democratic).[13] All 6 states were instead won by Donald Trump. They also incorrectly predicted a Democratic victory in the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections,[14] however, they missed 10 out of 435 US House seats, their best score out of their three US House forecasts. In the US Senate, they only missed one out of 34 seats up that year and successfully predicted a Republican majority. Like in 2020, they successfully predicted the outcome of each of the 11 gubernatorial races up in presidential years.
In their state legislative forecasts, they successfully predicted 79 out of 85 state legislative chambers up that year, incorrectly predicting Democratic victories in the Wisconsin Assembly, Michigan House, Minnesota House, New Hampshire House, and both chambers of the Arizona legislature. They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,633 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,879 seats they cast a rating for (94%). Out of the 1,147 seats they identified as competitive (including 3 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 901 seats, or 79%.
On December 20th, 2024, the CNalysis website shut down and redirects to its successor, State Navigate. The website had a staff of seven as well as two interns.
