Comprising the northwestern part of the City of Westminster, the constituency contained some affluent residential areas that have historically voted Conservative in large numbers, such as Bayswater and the area on the western and northwestern sides of Regent's Park.
Lord's Cricket Ground and the Abbey Road Studios are in the seat, as are the Queen's Park, Church Street, Westbourne Park, and Harrow Road areas, further from central London. However, the seat has mostly been represented at local level by Conservative councillors, via the wards of Little Venice, Regent's Park, Abbey Road and Lancaster Gate, while Maida Vale and Bayswater have had split representation.
Reflective of the transport links to the selective professional industries of the City of London and long-standing desirable housing in this area, workless claimants who were registered jobseekers were in November 2012 lower than the national average of 3.8%, at 2.9% of the population, based on a statistical compilation by The Guardian.[3]
History
1983–1997
The seat was created under the Third Periodic Review of constituencies in 1983, which followed the first Boundary Commission Review in 1945, which in turn directly followed the Representation of the People Act 1918 review. It was based largely on Paddington but also took in the abolished St Marylebone constituency.
Political history
The seat was held with modest majorities for the first creation, made up of three terms, by John Wheeler, a Conservative. Paddington constituency, its main predecessor was often marginal: by length of a single party's representation and by majorities achieved. The far less contributory precursor, St Marylebone, was a Conservative safe seat.
The 1997 boundary changes expanded the constituency to the west, taking in Labour-voting areas of north Kensington and tilting the seat towards Labour. Wheeler decided that he did not wish to contest such unfavourable territory and sought selection elsewhere. However he was unsuccessful in finding a new safe seat and thus retired at the 1997 general election.
2010-2024
Political history
The seat was tipped in mainstream newspapers to be likely to achieve the necessary notional swing based on the same area's votes in the previous election, in 2005, to fall to the Conservative candidate; however the seat fell short of the national average swing and was accordingly won by Karen Buck. The 2015 result gave the seat the 21st most marginal majority of Labour's 232 seats by percentage of majority.[4] In the 2017 general election, Karen Buck increased her majority over Lindsey Hall, the Conservative Party candidate, from 1,977 to 11,512.[5]
Boundaries
1983–1997
The City of Westminster wards of: Bayswater; Church Street; Hamilton Terrace; Harrow Road; Lancaster Gate; Little Venice; Lords;[n 3] Maida Vale; Queen's Park; Regent's Park; and Westbourne.
^This was one of several small wards, not shown in the 2010 post-revision (and pre-revision) map of the area, which was thus abolished before the Fifth review – the actual area around "Lords" remained squarely within the seat on the re-appearance of the constituency in 2010.
^Since January 1993 John Wheeler only has the title: Sir
^Used the description "Tactically Vote Conservative Annihilates Bennites Livingstonites"
^Britain Votes 5, compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Dartmouth Publishing, Aldershot, 1993, p. 152; Return of Election Expenses, HC Paper 603 of session 1992–93, p. 79.
^Britain Votes 4, ed. F. W. S. Craig, Parliamentary Research Services, Chichester, 1987, p. 24; Return of Election Expenses, HC Paper 426 of session 1987–88, p. 62.
^Britain Votes 4, ed. F. W. S. Craig, Parliamentary Research Services, Chichester, 1987, p. 24; Return of Election Expenses, HC Paper 130 of session 1983–84, p. 71.
