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2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout61.2% Decrease
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,472,914 1,184,885
Percentage 55.36% 44.53%
Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Vukmir:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Elections in Wisconsin
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin

U.S. Senators

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 510,812 99.64%
Write-in 1,848 0.36%
Total votes 512,660 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Nicholson

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers

Leah Vukmir

Federal officials

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kevin
Nicholson 		Leah
Vukmir 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[85] July 26–28, 2018 238 ± 6.5% 35% 35% 3% 27%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 355 ± 6.1% 38% 28% <1% 34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[87] July 12–16, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 33% 20% – 47%
Marquette University[88] July 11–15, 2018 266 ± 7.0% 32% 34% 2% 30%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 274 ± 6.9% 37% 32% 1% 30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[90] June 7–12, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 28% 14% – 58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)[91] May 31 – June 4, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 29% 36% – 35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)[92] May 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 32% 30% – –
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[93] April 30 – May 3, 2018 240 ± 6.0% 46% 15% – –
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[94] April 2–4, 2018 1,028 ± 3.1% 45% 27% – 28%
Marquette University[95] February 25 – March 1, 2018 243 ± 8.2% 28% 19% 2% 49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] January 22–23, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 48% 9% 1%[a] 42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] January 2–3, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 27% 10% 2%[b] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[97] December 6–7, 2017 1,004 ± 3.1% 30% 23% 2%[b] 45%
Notes
  1. ^ John Schiess 1%
  2. ^ a b John Schiess 2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		David
Clarke 		Sean
Duffy 		Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 15–16, 2017 300 ± 5.7% 32% 26% 42%

Results

Results by county
  Vukmir
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Nicholson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Leah Vukmir 217,230 48.90%
Republican Kevin Nicholson 191,276 43.06%
Republican George Lucia 18,786 4.23%
Republican Griffin Jones 8,699 1.96%
Republican Charles Barman 7,959 1.79%
Write-in 303 0.07%
Total votes 444,253 100%

General election

Endorsements

Leah Vukmir (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Tammy Baldwin (D)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[124] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[125] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] Likely D November 5, 2018
Fox News[127][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN[128] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[129] Lean D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Leah
Vukmir (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[130] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 50% 39% – 11%
Emerson College[131] October 29–31, 2018 604 ± 4.1% 53% 44% – 3%
Marquette University[132] October 24–28, 2018 1,154 LV ± 3.2% 54% 43% – 1%
1,400 RV ± 3.0% 52% 42% – 3%
Ipsos[133] October 12–18, 2018 1,193 ± 3.0% 54% 39% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[134] October 10–11, 2018 816 ± 3.4% 52% 42% – 6%
Marquette University[135] October 3–7, 2018 799 LV ± 3.9% 53% 43% – 2%
1,000 RV ± 3.6% 53% 42% – 3%
Marist College[136] September 30 – October 3, 2018 571 LV ± 4.8% 54% 40% 1% 5%
781 RV ± 4.1% 53% 40% 1% 6%
Ipsos[133] September 14–24, 2018 1,109 ± 3.0% 52% 39% 4% 5%
Marquette University[137] September 12–16, 2018 614 LV ± 4.4% 53% 42% – 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 52% 40% – 4%
Suffolk University[138] August 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – 8%
Marquette University[139] August 15–19, 2018 601 LV ± 4.5% 49% 47% – 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 51% 43% – 4%
Emerson College[140] July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 50% 36% 4% 10%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 55% 38% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 56% 40% – 4%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 39% – 10%
Hypothetical polling

with Kevin Nicholson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Kevin
Nicholson (R) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[143] July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 49% 40% 3% 9%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 54% 39% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 55% 42% – 3%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 50% 39% – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 38% – 11%

with generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,668 ± 3.6% 49% 46% 5%

with David Clarke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		David
Clarke (R) 		Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 35% 2% 14%

with Sean Duffy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Sean
Duffy (R) 		Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 2% 13%

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[145] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018[146]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 1,472,914 55.36% +3.95%
Republican Leah Vukmir 1,184,885 44.53% −1.33%
Write-in 2,964 0.11% N/A
Total votes 2,660,763 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won 3 out of the state's 8 Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over 10 percentage points.

District Vukmir Baldwin Representative
1st 50.3% 49.6% Bryan Steil
2nd 26.4% 73.4% Mark Pocan
3rd 43.5% 56.4% Ron Kind
4th 21.3% 78.6% Gwen Moore
5th 56.9% 43.0% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.4% 47.5% Glenn Grothman
7th 52.2% 47.7% Sean Duffy
8th 51.5% 48.5% Mike Gallagher

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ "Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov. Archived from the original on April 17, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
  2. ^ "Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018". April 19, 2017. Archived from the original on November 4, 2017. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
  3. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Re-Election Campaign". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckwoth (D. IL) Refuses To Let Cadet Bone Spurs Defeat A Fellow Tammy". Daily Kos. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on May 19, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  5. ^ a b "WI, FL & VA-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. October 30, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  6. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D) Refuses To Let Right-Wing Billionaires Defeat Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  7. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Campaign To Continue To Take On Trump". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  8. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Tammy Baldwin (D) Keep Up The Fight To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  9. ^ a b "MA, MO & WI-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps These Women Persist & Resist Trump". Daily Kos. November 7, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  10. ^ a b Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Baldwin.
  11. ^ a b "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 29, 2017.
  12. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Refuses To Let Trump & The Kochs Take Down Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018. Archived from the original on May 19, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  13. ^ a b "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
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  85. ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine
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Official campaign websites

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