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2020 United States presidential election in Oregon

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout81.97% (of registered voters) Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent Party -
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,340,383 958,448
Percentage 56.45% 40.37%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Biden won 56.45% of the vote to 40.37% for Trump. Biden received Oregon's seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] The state certified its election results on December 3.[4]

Biden won Oregon by 16.09%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% victory margin in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won Oregon since Ronald Reagan of neighboring California in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County, home to the state capital of Salem; and Deschutes County, anchored by fast-growing Bend. This marked the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won an outright majority in Deschutes County, although Democratic presidential nominees in 1976 and 1992 had carried the county with pluralities.[5]

Biden was the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without carrying Columbia County and Tillamook County. Tillamook and Columbia counties were among a fraction of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. to vote twice for Barack Obama (in 2008 and 2012) and twice for Trump (in 2016 and 2020).[6] Biden also made history as the highest vote earner in Oregon history, with 1,340,383 votes, and Biden was able to achieve stronger swings leftward in 28 of Oregon's 36 counties than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[7]

Primary elections

The Oregon primary elections were held on Tuesday, May 19, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in Oregon, receiving the state's 28 delegates to the Republican National Convention[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Republican presidential primary § ORresults.[edit]
2020 Oregon Republican presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Donald Trump (incumbent) 363,785 93.70 28
Write-ins 24,461 6.30 0
Total 388,246 100.00 28

Democratic primary

Though all Democrats but Joe Biden had withdrawn from the national race by the Oregon primary, four remained on the ballot. Biden won just under two-thirds of the vote. Bernie Sanders received just over 20% of the vote. Oregon's 71 delegates were allocated with 46 to Biden and 15 to Sanders.[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary § ORresults.[edit]
2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 408,315 65.99 46
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 127,345 20.58 15
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 59,355 9.59
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 10,717 1.73
Write-in votes 12,979 2.10
Total 618,711 100% 61

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[13]

Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 1,661 46.7
Donald Trump 1,389 39.1
Bernie Sanders 1,227 34.5
Total 4,277 100.00
Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 392 55.13
Donald Trump 280 39.38

Pacific Green Party primary

Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[14] Solid D
Inside Elections[15] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe D
Politico[17] Likely D
RCP[18] Lean D
Niskanen[19] Safe D
CNN[20] Solid D
The Economist[21] Safe D
CBS News[22] Likely D
270towin[23] Safe D
ABC News[24] Solid D
NPR[25] Likely D
NBC News[26] Likely D
538[27] Solid D

Polling

Graphical summary


Polls

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[28] September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 20, 2020 58.0% 38.5% 3.5% Biden +19.5
FiveThirtyEight[29] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.7% 37.4% 3.9% Biden +21.3
Average 58.4% 38.0% 3.7% Biden +20.4

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Pacific Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,543 (LV) ± 2.5% 39%[c] 59% – – – –
Swayable[31] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.3% 37% 60% 1% 1% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Oct 1–28, 2020 5,422 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,109 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[32] Sep 26–29, 2020 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% – – 3%[d] 2%
DHM Research[33] Sep 3–8, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51% – – 6%[e] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,648 (LV) – 38% 60% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Jul 1–31, 2020 1,890 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Jun 8–30, 2020 872 (LV) – 39% 59% – – – 2%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Oregon[34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,340,383 56.45% +6.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		958,448 40.37% +1.28%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		41,582 1.75% −2.96%
Pacific Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		11,831 0.50% −2.00%
Progressive Dario Hunter
Dawn Neptune Adams 		4,988 0.21% N/A
Write-in 17,089 0.72% −2.91%
Total votes 2,374,321 100.00% N/A

By county

County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Baker 2,346 23.62% 7,352 74.02% 234 2.36% -5,006 -50.40% 9,932
Benton 35,827 67.86% 14,878 28.18% 2,094 3.96% 20,949 39.68% 52,799
Clackamas 139,043 53.96% 110,509 42.89% 8,127 3.15% 28,534 11.07% 257,679
Clatsop 12,916 54.02% 10,218 42.74% 776 3.24% 2,698 11.28% 23,910
Columbia 13,835 42.94% 17,150 53.23% 1,236 3.83% -3,315 -10.29% 32,221
Coos 14,243 38.42% 21,829 58.88% 1,003 2.70% -7,586 -20.46% 37,075
Crook 3,801 24.61% 11,287 73.06% 360 2.33% -7,486 -48.45% 15,448
Curry 6,058 40.59% 8,484 56.84% 383 2.57% -2,426 -16.25% 14,925
Deschutes 65,962 52.67% 55,646 44.43% 3,626 2.90% 10,316 8.24% 125,234
Douglas 19,160 29.78% 43,298 67.29% 1,891 2.93% -24,138 -37.51% 64,349
Gilliam 324 27.50% 834 70.80% 20 1.70% -510 -43.30% 1,178
Grant 929 20.21% 3,545 77.13% 122 2.66% -2,616 -56.92% 4,596
Harney 894 19.95% 3,475 77.55% 112 2.50% -2,581 -57.60% 4,481
Hood River 8,764 66.95% 3,955 30.21% 371 2.84% 4,809 36.74% 13,090
Jackson 59,478 46.77% 63,869 50.23% 3,818 3.00% -4,391 -3.46% 127,165
Jefferson 4,393 36.88% 7,189 60.35% 331 2.77% -2,796 -23.47% 11,913
Josephine 18,451 35.73% 31,751 61.48% 1,439 2.79% -13,300 -25.75% 51,641
Klamath 10,388 28.29% 25,308 68.91% 1,030 2.80% -14,920 -40.62% 36,726
Lake 792 18.15% 3,470 79.53% 101 2.32% -2,678 -61.38% 4,363
Lane 134,366 60.46% 80,336 36.15% 7,551 3.39% 54,030 24.31% 222,253
Lincoln 17,385 56.58% 12,460 40.55% 881 2.87% 4,925 16.03% 30,726
Linn 26,512 36.50% 43,486 59.87% 2,642 3.63% -16,974 -23.37% 72,640
Malheur 3,260 27.62% 8,187 69.36% 357 3.02% -4,927 -41.74% 11,804
Marion 80,872 48.86% 79,002 47.73% 5,660 3.41% 1,870 1.13% 165,534
Morrow 1,371 26.79% 3,586 70.07% 161 3.14% -2,215 -43.28% 5,118
Multnomah 367,249 79.21% 82,995 17.90% 13,415 2.89% 284,254 61.31% 463,659
Polk 22,917 47.46% 23,732 49.14% 1,642 3.40% -815 -1.68% 48,291
Sherman 260 21.52% 921 76.24% 27 2.24% -661 -54.72% 1,208
Tillamook 8,066 47.76% 8,354 49.47% 468 2.77% -288 -1.71% 16,888
Umatilla 10,707 32.41% 21,270 64.38% 1,061 3.21% -10,563 -31.97% 33,038
Union 4,254 28.47% 10,298 68.91% 392 2.62% -6,044 -40.44% 14,944
Wallowa 1,625 31.56% 3,404 66.11% 120 2.33% -1,779 -34.55% 5,149
Wasco 6,604 46.74% 7,035 49.79% 491 3.47% -431 -3.05% 14,130
Washington 209,940 65.54% 99,073 30.93% 11,313 3.53% 110,867 34.61% 320,326
Wheeler 217 22.49% 711 73.68% 37 3.83% -494 -51.19% 965
Yamhill 27,174 46.12% 29,551 50.15% 2,198 3.73% -2,377 -4.03% 58,923
Totals 1,340,383 56.45% 958,448 40.37% 75,490 3.18% 381,935 16.08% 2,374,321

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 34.1% 63.3% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 55.6% 42.1% Cliff Bentz
3rd 23.5% 74.3% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46.7% 50.7% Peter DeFazio
5th 43.9% 53.6% Kurt Schrader

Analysis

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Oregon by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[36][37]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 56.45 40.37 100
Ideology
Liberals 96 4 33
Moderates 66 30 37
Conservatives 8 92 30
Party
Democrats 98 2 36
Republicans 7 93 24
Independents 52 43 41
Gender
Men 51 45 50
Women 63 35 50
Race/ethnicity
White 58 39 85
Non-white – – 15
Age
18–29 years old – – 17
30–44 years old 62 34 24
45–64 years old 52 48 35
65 and older 54 44 24
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – 8
Not LGBT 55 42 92
Education
High school or less 38 62 24
Some college education 57 37 34
Associate degree 57 41 12
Bachelor's degree 67 30 17
Postgraduate degree 78 18 13
Region
Multnomah County – – 20
Portland suburbs 63 35 26
Willamette/Northwest 51 45 29
East/South 39 57 25
Area type
Urban 75 23 32
Suburban 52 44 50
Rural 37 58 18
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 27 71 41
Worse than four years ago 84 9 17
About the same 73 24 42

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 6%

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  5. ^ Warner, Gary (November 20, 2020). "Deschutes joins Oregon's blue hue in presidential voting, and other voting stats". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2021.
  6. ^ Warner, Gary A. (January 5, 2022). "A turbulent first week of 2022 election year". Oregon Capital Insider. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  7. ^ "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". KPTV. Associated Press. May 19, 2020.
  9. ^ "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  11. ^ "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  12. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  20. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  21. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  24. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  25. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  26. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  28. ^ 270 to Win
  29. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  30. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  31. ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  33. ^ DHM Research
  34. ^ "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  35. ^ a b "Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election". The Republican. March 17, 2021. Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  36. ^ "Oregon 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  37. ^ "Oregon Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
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