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Great Regression

The Great Regression refers to worsening economic conditions affecting lower earning sections of the population in the United States, Western Europe and other advanced economies starting around 1981. These deteriorating conditions include rising inequality; and falling or stagnating wages, pensions, unemployment insurance, and welfare benefits. The decline in these conditions has been by no means uniform. Specific trends vary depending on the metric being tracked, the country, and which specific demographic is being examined. For most advanced economies, the worsening economic conditions affecting the less well off accelerated sharply after the late-2000s recession.^[1]^[2]

The Great Regression contrasts with the "Great Prosperity" or Golden Age of Capitalism, where from the late 1940s to mid 1970s, economic growth delivered benefits which were broadly shared across the earnings spectrums, with inequality falling as the poorest sections of society increased their incomes at a faster rate than the richest. ^[1]^[2]

Examples

Some of the trends making up the great regression pre-date 1981. Such as stagnating wages for production and non-supervisory workers in the U.S. private sector; real wages for these workers peaked in 1973. Or the divergence in increases of productivity and pay for such workers: these two factors tended to increase in "lock-step" until about 1973, but then diverged sharply, with productivity increasing massively over the following decades, while pay stagnated. The breakdown of Bowley's law, the apparently near fixed proportion of economic output going to workers, is another enduring change which began around the mid 1970s.^[3]

Causes

Robert Reich considers the main cause to be political, with the rich better able to influence politics.^[1] The great regression has largely coincided with decreasing bargaining power for workers, which itself partly results from the falling influence of unions. Especially since 2013, the adverse economic trends have been increasingly blamed on technological unemployment, and with recently increased uptake of robots and automation in the emerging economies, there are concerns that workers there too may soon suffer from the great regression.^[3] Since 1980 in the United States, under Reaganomics, there has been a decline of the progressive income tax (with major federal tax cut legislation being enacted in 1981, 2001, and 2017) leading to a rise in inequality.^[4]

References

^ ^a ^b ^c Robert Bernard Reich (September 3, 2011). "The Limping Middle Class". New York Times. Retrieved September 6, 2011. During periods when the very rich took home a larger proportion—as between 1918 and 1933, and in the Great Regression from 1981 to the present day—growth slowed, median wages stagnated and we suffered giant downturns. ...
^ ^a ^b Paul Taylor (February 7, 2011). "After the Great Recession, the Great Regression". Reuters in the New York Times. Retrieved September 6, 2011. Wages, pensions, unemployment insurance, welfare benefits and collective bargaining are under attack in many countries as governments struggle to reduce debts swollen partly by the cost of rescuing banks during the global financial crisis.
^ ^a ^b Ford, Martin (2015). The Rise of the Robots. One World. pp. passim, see esp. 34–41. ISBN 9781780747491.
^ Sam Pizzigati and Chuck Collins (February 6, 2013). "The Great Regression. The decline of the progressive income tax and the rise of inequality". The Nation.

External links

Charts on the New York Times comparing the Great Regression with the "Great Prosperity" of 1947 - 1979.

v t e Economic expansions and recessions in the United States and Commonwealth of Nations countries
Aggregate demand/Supply Effective demand General glut Model Overproduction Paradox of thrift Price-and-wage stickiness Underconsumption Business cycle Deflation/Inflation Chronic Classical dichotomy Disinflation Money supply/demand Neutrality of money Price level Real and nominal values Velocity of money Economic expansion Recovery Stagnation U.S. expansions Interest rate Nominal interest rate Real interest rate Yield curve/Inverted Recession Balance sheet Depression Global Rolling Shapes Stagflation U.K. recessions U.S. recessions Shock Demand Supply Unemployment
Commercial revolution (1000–1760)	Great Slump (1430–1490) Slump of 1706 Great Frost of 1709
1st Industrial Revolution (1760–1840)	British credit crisis of 1772–1773 1772–1774; England Scotland Thirteen Colonies 1785–1788 Copper Panic of 1789/Panic of 1792 (1789–1793) Panic of 1796–1797 (1796–1799) 1802–1804 1807–1810 1812 Post-Napoleonic Depression (1815–1821) 1822–23 Panic of 1825 (1825–1826) 1828–29 1833–34 Panic of 1837 (1836–1838 and 1839–1843)
Early Victorian Britain/ Civil War-era United States (1840–1870)	1845–46 Panic of 1847 (1847–1848) 1853–54 Panic of 1857 (1857–1858) 1860–61 Panic of 1866 (1865–1867) Black Friday (1869–1870)
Gilded Age/ 2nd Industrial Revolution (1870–1914)	Long Depression 1873–1879; United Kingdom United States Depression of 1882–1885 1887–88 Baring crisis (1890–1891) Panic of 1893 (1893–1897) 1899–1900 Panic of 1901 (1902–1904) Panic of 1907 (1907–1908) Panic of 1910–1911 (1910–1912) Financial crisis of 1914 (1913–14)
Interwar period (1918–1939)	Post–World War I recession (1918–1919) Depression of 1920–1921 Roaring Twenties 1923–1924 1926–1927 Great Depression 1929–1939; Australia Canada India New Zealand South Africa United Kingdom United States Recession of 1937–1938
Post–WWII expansion (1945–1973)	1945 Recession of 1949 (1948–1949) Recession of 1953 (1953–1954) Recession of 1958 (1957–1958) Recession of 1960–1961 Recession of 1969–1970
Great Inflation (1973–1982)	1973–1975 recession United Kingdom United States Early 1980s recession 1980–1982; Canada United Kingdom United States
Great Moderation/ Great Regression (1982–2007)	1990s United States boom Early 1990s recession 1990–1991; Australia Canada United Kingdom United States 1997 Asian financial crisis Early 2000s recession (2001)
Information Age (2007–present)	Great Recession 2007–2009; Australia Bangladesh Canada India Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan South Africa Sri Lanka United Kingdom United States COVID-19 recession 2020–2022; Australia Bangladesh Belize Botswana Canada India Malaysia Namibia New Zealand Singapore United Kingdom United States Zambia

v t e Financial bubbles
Market trend Credit cycle Irrational exuberance Social contagion Real-estate bubble Stock market bubble
Commercial revolution (1000–1760)	Tulip mania (1634–1637) Mississippi bubble (1684–1720) South Sea bubble (1711–1720) Bengal Bubble of 1769 (1757–1769)
1st Industrial Revolution (1760–1840)	Canal Mania (c. 1790–c. 1810) Carolina gold rush (1802–1825) 1810s Alabama real estate bubble Georgia Gold Rush (1828–c. 1840) 1830s Chicago real estate bubble Chilean silver rush (1830–1850)
1840–1870	Railway Mania (c. 1840–c. 1850) California gold rush (1848–1855) Queen Charlottes Gold Rush (1851) Victorian gold rush (1851–c. 1870) New South Wales gold rush (1851–1880) Australian gold rushes (1851–1914) Fraser Canyon Gold Rush (1858) Pike's Peak gold rush (1858–1861) Rock Creek Gold Rush (1859) Pennsylvania oil rush (1859–1891) Similkameen Gold Rush (1860) Stikine Gold Rush (1861) Colorado River mining boom (1861–1864) Otago Gold Rush (1861–1864) Cariboo Gold Rush (1861–1867) First Nova Scotia Gold Rush (1861–1874) West Coast Gold Rush (1864–1867) Big Bend Gold Rush (c. 1865) Vermilion Lake gold rush (1865–1867) Kildonan Gold Rush (1869) Omineca Gold Rush (1869)
2nd Industrial Revolution (1870–1914)	1870s Lapland gold rush Coromandel Gold Rushes (c. 1870–c. 1890) Cassiar Gold Rush (c. 1870–c. 1890) Black Hills gold rush (1874–1880) Colorado Silver Boom (1879–1893) Western Australian gold rushes (c. 1880–c. 1900) Indiana gas boom (c. 1880–1903) Ohio oil rush (c. 1880–c. 1930) Tierra del Fuego gold rush (1883–1906) Cayoosh Gold Rush (1884) Witwatersrand Gold Rush (1886) Encilhamento (1886–1890) Cripple Creek Gold Rush (c. 1890–c. 1910) Klondike Gold Rush (1896–1899) Second Nova Scotia Gold Rush (1896–1903) Kobuk River Stampede (1897–1899) Mount Baker gold rush (1897–c. 1925) Nome Gold Rush (1899–1909) Fairbanks Gold Rush (c. 1900–1918) Texas oil boom (1901–1918) Cobalt silver rush (1903–1918) Porcupine Gold Rush (1909–1918)
Interwar period (1918–1939)	1920s Florida land boom (c. 1920–1925) Fairbanks Gold Rush (1918–c. 1930) Texas oil boom (1918–1945) Cobalt silver rush (1918–c. 1930) Porcupine Gold Rush (1918–1945) 1930s Kakamega gold rush Third Nova Scotia Gold Rush (1932–1942)
Post–WWII expansion (1945–1973)	Texas oil boom (1945–c. 1950) Porcupine Gold Rush (1945–c. 1960) Poseidon bubble (1969–1970)
The Great Inflation (1973–1982)	1970s commodities boom Mexican oil boom (1977–1981) Silver Thursday (1980) New Zealand property bubble (c. 1980–1982)
Great Moderation/ Great Regression (1982–2007)	1980s oil glut New Zealand property bubble (1982–) Spanish property bubble (1985–2008) Japanese asset price bubble (1986–1990) Dot-com bubble (1995–2000) Baltic states housing bubble (2000–2006) Irish property bubble (c. 2000–2007) 2000s commodities boom (2000–2008) 2000s Danish property bubble (2001–2006) United States housing bubble (2002–2006) Romanian property bubble (2002–2007) Polish property bubble (2002–2008) Canadian property bubble (2002–) Chinese property bubble (2005–11) Lebanese housing bubble (2005–2008) Chinese stock bubble of 2007 Uranium bubble of 2007
Information Age (2007–present)	2000s commodities boom (2008–2014) Lebanese housing bubble (2008–) Corporate debt bubble (2008–) Australian property bubble (2010–) Cryptocurrency bubble (2011–) Everything bubble (2020–21)
Carbon bubble Green bubble Social media stock bubble Unicorn bubble U.S. higher education bubble

v t e Financial crises
Bank run Commodity price shocks Credit crunch Credit cycle Currency crisis Debt crisis Energy crisis Financial contagion Social contagion Flash crash Hyperinflation Liquidity crisis Accounting Capital Funding Market Minsky moment Social crisis Stock market crash
Pre-1000	Crisis of the Third Century (235–284 CE)
Commercial revolution (1000–1760)	Great Bullion Famine (c. 1400–c. 1500) The Great Debasement (1544–1551) Dutch Republic stock market crashes (c. 1600–1760) Kipper und Wipper (1621–1623) Tulip mania crash (1637) South Sea bubble crash (1720) Mississippi bubble crash (1720)
1st Industrial Revolution (1760–1840)	Amsterdam banking crisis of 1763 Bengal bubble crash (1769–1784) British credit crisis of 1772–1773 Dutch Republic financial collapse (c. 1780–1795) Copper Panic of 1789 Panic of 1792 Panic of 1796–1797 Danish state bankruptcy of 1813 Post-Napoleonic Irish grain price and land use shocks (1815–1816) Panic of 1819 Panic of 1825 Panic of 1837
1840–1870	European potato failure (1845–1856) Great Irish Famine Highland Potato Famine Panic of 1847 Panic of 1857 Panic of 1866 Black Friday (1869)
2nd Industrial Revolution (1870–1914)	Panic of 1873 Paris Bourse crash of 1882 Panic of 1884 Arendal crash (1886) Baring crisis (1890) Encilhamento (1890–1893) Panic of 1893 Australian banking crisis of 1893 Black Monday (1894) Panic of 1896 Panic of 1901 Panic of 1907 Shanghai rubber stock market crisis (1910) Panic of 1910–1911 Financial crisis of 1914
Interwar period (1918–1939)	Early Soviet hyperinflation (1917–1924) Weimar Republic hyperinflation (1921–1923) Shōwa financial crisis (1927) Wall Street Crash of 1929 Panic of 1930
Post–WWII expansion (1945–1973)	Kennedy Slide of 1962 1963–1965 Indonesian hyperinflation
Great Inflation (1973–1982)	1970s energy crisis (1973–1980) 1973 oil crisis 1973–1974 stock market crash Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 Steel crisis (1973–1982) Latin American debt crisis (1975–1982) 1976 British currency crisis 1979 oil crisis Brazilian hyperinflation (1980–1982)
Great Moderation/ Great Regression (1982–2007)	Brazilian hyperinflation (1982–1994) Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash (1982) Chilean crisis of 1982 1983 Israel bank stock crisis Black Saturday (1983) Savings and loan crisis (1986–1995) Cameroonian economic crisis (1987–2000s) Black Monday (1987) 1988–1992 Norwegian banking crisis Japanese asset price bubble crash (1990–1992) Rhode Island banking crisis (1990–1992) 1991 Indian economic crisis 1990s Swedish financial crisis 1990s Finnish banking crisis 1990s Armenian energy crisis Cuban Special Period (1991–2000) Black Wednesday (1992 Sterling crisis) Yugoslav hyperinflation (1992–1994) 1994 bond market crisis Venezuelan banking crisis of 1994 Mexican peso crisis (1994–1996) 1997 Asian financial crisis October 1997 mini-crash 1998 Russian financial crisis 1998–1999 Ecuador economic crisis 1998–2002 Argentine great depression Samba effect (1999) Dot-com bubble crash (2000–2004) 9/11 stock market crash (2001) 2001 Turkish economic crisis South American economic crisis of 2002 Stock market downturn of 2002 2002 Uruguay banking crisis 2003 Myanmar banking crisis 2000s energy crisis (2003–2008) 2004 Argentine energy crisis 2007 Chinese stock bubble crash Zimbabwean hyperinflation (2007–present)
Great Recession (2007–2009)	2007–2008 financial crisis September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 2009 Subprime mortgage crisis 2000s U.S. housing market correction U.S. bear market of 2007–2009 2008 Latvian financial crisis 2008–2009 Belgian financial crisis 2008–2009 Russian financial crisis 2008–2009 Ukrainian financial crisis 2008–2011 Icelandic financial crisis 2008–2011 Irish banking crisis 2008–2014 Spanish financial crisis Blue Monday Crash 2009 European debt crisis Greek government-debt crisis
Information Age (2009–present)	2009 Dubai debt standstill Venezuelan banking crisis of 2009–2010 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis Energy crisis in Venezuela (2010–present) Syrian economic crisis (2011–present) August 2011 stock markets fall 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2012–2013 Cypriot financial crisis 2013 Chinese banking liquidity crisis Venezuela economic crisis (2013–present) 2014–2016 Brazilian economic crisis Puerto Rican government-debt crisis (2014–2022) Russian financial crisis (2014–2016) 2015 Nepal blockade 2015–2016 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–2016 stock market selloff Brexit stock market crash (2016) Venezuelan hyperinflation (2016–2022) 2017 Sri Lankan fuel crisis Ghana banking crisis (2017–2018) Turkish economic crisis (2018–present) Lebanese liquidity crisis (2019–present) Sri Lankan economic crisis (2019–present) COVID-19 pandemic Financial market impact 2020 stock market crash Recession Chinese property sector crisis (2020–present) 2021–2023 inflation 2022 Russian financial crisis 2022 stock market decline 2023 United States banking crisis
List of banking crises List of economic crises List of sovereign debt crises List of stock market crashes and bear markets

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Great Regression

Examples

Causes

See also

References

External links