2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas

2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas
Bush 40-50% 50-60% 60-70%	Kerry 50-60% 60-70%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won the state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin or in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state’s vote, and the last election in which Arkansas voted to the left of Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Indiana.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]


Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Lean R
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Likely R
Newsweek	Lean R
New York Times	Lean R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Lean R
Washington Post	Likely R
Washington Times	Lean R
Zogby International	Toss-up
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692.^[3] Kerry raised $466,194.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.^[5]^[6]

Analysis

Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. The Kerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern" focusing on the more important states such as Ohio and Wisconsin that were the key to winning the General Election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "Northern Yankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and after Osama bin Laden delivered a speech on the Arabic news network Al Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry the state from then on.^[7]^[8]^[9]

On election day Bush performed better than what polls showed, outperforming nearly every single poll.^[10]

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were a handful of Delta counties; the state capital, Little Rock; Pine Bluff; and only a few counties to the south. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, the latter being the home son of Arkansas.

In this election, Arkansas voted 7.3% to the right of the nation at-large.^[11]

Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections. This election represented, arguably, the last time Arkansas was considered competitive on a national political level, as the GOP would gain supporters due to an increased distaste for the social liberalism espoused by the Democratic Party. Over the next 12 years, various Democrats representing Arkansas federally and statewide (including all three Democratic Congressmen in the House and both Democratic Senators at the time) would retire or be defeated in "wave" elections, culminating in the state rejecting its former first lady, Hillary Clinton, by almost 27 points in the 2016 election. As of the 2020 election, no statewide or federally elected position (i.e. Congress) in Arkansas is held by a Democrat.

As of the 2020 presidential election^[update], Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in which Jackson County, Monroe County, Clark County, Mississippi County, Lawrence County, Clay County, Poinsett County, Lincoln County, Bradley County, Randolph County, Hempstead County and Little River County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time in which the state was decided by a single digit margin of victory.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas^[12]^[13]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	Dick Cheney (incumbent)	572,898	54.31%	6
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	469,953	44.55%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	6,171	0.58%	0
	Independent	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	2,345	0.22%	0
	Independent	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	2,083	0.20%	0
	Independent	David Cobb	Patricia LaMarche	1,488	0.14%	0
Totals				1,054,945	100.00%	6
Voter turnout (Voter age)						50%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total
Arkansas	3,789	54.55%	3,110	44.77%	47	0.68%	679	9.78%	6,946
Ashley	4,567	53.65%	3,881	45.59%	64	0.76%	686	8.06%	8,512
Baxter	11,128	60.05%	7,129	38.47%	273	1.47%	3,999	21.58%	18,530
Benton	46,571	68.37%	20,756	30.47%	794	1.17%	25,815	37.90%	68,121
Boone	9,793	66.27%	4,640	31.40%	344	2.32%	5,153	34.87%	14,777
Bradley	2,011	47.33%	2,206	51.92%	32	0.75%	-195	-4.59%	4,249
Calhoun	1,340	58.29%	939	40.84%	20	0.86%	401	17.45%	2,299
Carroll	6,184	59.00%	4,161	39.70%	136	1.30%	2,023	19.30%	10,481
Chicot	1,725	36.26%	2,993	62.92%	39	0.82%	-1,268	-26.66%	4,757
Clark	4,144	44.99%	4,990	54.17%	77	0.84%	-846	-9.18%	9,211
Clay	2,759	45.26%	3,264	53.54%	73	1.20%	-505	-8.28%	6,096
Cleburne	7,107	60.43%	4,517	38.41%	137	1.16%	2,590	22.02%	11,761
Cleveland	2,009	57.47%	1,450	41.48%	37	1.06%	559	15.99%	3,496
Columbia	5,729	57.82%	4,108	41.46%	72	0.72%	1,621	16.36%	9,909
Conway	4,009	49.59%	3,982	49.26%	93	1.15%	27	0.33%	8,084
Craighead	15,818	53.08%	13,665	45.85%	318	1.07%	2,153	7.23%	29,801
Crawford	13,391	65.64%	6,764	33.16%	246	1.20%	6,627	32.48%	20,401
Crittenden	6,930	45.29%	8,277	54.10%	93	0.61%	-1,347	-8.81%	15,300
Cross	3,864	54.62%	3,135	44.32%	75	1.06%	729	10.30%	7,074
Dallas	1,700	50.18%	1,671	49.32%	17	0.50%	29	0.86%	3,388
Desha	1,729	37.21%	2,851	61.35%	67	1.45%	-1,122	-24.14%	4,647
Drew	3,262	52.20%	2,952	47.24%	35	0.56%	310	4.96%	6,249
Faulkner	21,514	58.64%	14,538	39.63%	634	1.73%	6,976	19.01%	36,686
Franklin	4,181	57.36%	3,008	41.27%	100	1.37%	1,173	16.09%	7,289
Fulton	2,522	50.90%	2,370	47.83%	63	1.27%	152	3.07%	4,955
Garland	21,734	54.13%	18,040	44.93%	380	0.95%	3,694	9.20%	40,154
Grant	4,205	62.11%	2,524	37.28%	41	0.61%	1,681	24.83%	6,770
Greene	7,237	51.86%	6,564	47.04%	154	1.10%	673	4.82%	13,955
Hempstead	3,580	48.04%	3,817	51.22%	55	0.74%	-237	-3.18%	7,452
Hot Spring	5,960	49.40%	5,901	48.91%	204	1.69%	59	0.49%	12,065
Howard	2,736	55.35%	2,166	43.82%	41	0.83%	570	11.53%	4,943
Independence	7,430	57.11%	5,443	41.83%	138	1.06%	1,987	15.28%	13,011
Izard	2,833	51.57%	2,586	47.08%	74	1.35%	247	4.49%	5,493
Jackson	2,624	42.19%	3,515	56.52%	80	1.29%	-891	-14.33%	6,219
Jefferson	10,218	33.51%	19,675	64.52%	600	1.97%	-9,457	-31.01%	30,493
Johnson	4,311	53.59%	3,622	45.03%	111	1.38%	689	8.56%	8,044
Lafayette	1,604	50.27%	1,567	48.11%	20	0.63%	37	1.16%	3,191
Lawrence	2,951	44.61%	3,544	53.58%	120	1.81%	-593	-8.97%	6,615
Lee	1,492	36.57%	2,548	62.45%	40	0.98%	-1,056	-25.88%	4,080
Lincoln	1,921	46.75%	2,149	52.30%	39	0.95%	-228	-5.55%	4,109
Little River	2,575	48.64%	2,677	50.57%	42	0.80%	-102	-1.93%	5,294
Logan	5,076	59.36%	3,361	39.31%	114	1.33%	1,715	20.05%	8,551
Lonoke	14,398	65.36%	7,454	33.84%	178	0.80%	6,944	31.52%	22,030
Madison	3,873	60.67%	2,421	37.92%	90	1.41%	1,452	22.75%	6,384
Marion	4,127	60.10%	2,602	37.89%	138	2.01%	1,525	22.21%	6,867
Miller	8,448	57.56%	6,139	41.82%	91	0.62%	2,309	15.74%	14,678
Mississippi	6,121	43.25%	7,593	53.65%	439	3.11%	-1,472	-10.40%	14,153
Monroe	1,586	43.25%	2,049	55.88%	32	0.87%	-463	-12.63%	3,667
Montgomery	2,367	59.80%	1,524	38.50%	67	1.69%	843	21.30%	3,958
Nevada	1,752	50.39%	1,694	48.72%	31	0.89%	58	1.67%	3,477
Newton	2,779	63.48%	1,506	34.40%	93	2.11%	1,273	29.08%	4,378
Ouachita	5,345	50.19%	5,188	48.71%	117	1.09%	157	1.48%	10,650
Perry	2,435	54.95%	1,921	43.35%	75	1.69%	514	11.60%	4,431
Phillips	3,161	35.65%	5,642	63.62%	65	0.73%	-2,481	-27.97%	8,868
Pike	2,013	59.79%	1,310	38.91%	44	1.30%	703	20.88%	3,367
Poinsett	3,555	46.03%	4,069	52.69%	99	1.28%	-514	-6.66%	7,723
Polk	5,192	66.57%	2,473	31.71%	134	1.72%	2,719	34.86%	7,799
Pope	13,614	65.13%	7,100	33.97%	188	0.90%	6,514	31.16%	20,902
Prairie	2,030	56.02%	1,562	43.10%	32	0.88%	468	12.92%	3,624
Pulaski	67,903	44.20%	84,532	55.03%	1,185	0.77%	-16,629	-10.83%	153,620
Randolph	3,158	47.37%	3,412	51.18%	97	1.44%	-254	-3.81%	6,667
St. Francis	3,815	39.79%	5,684	59.28%	89	0.93%	-1,869	-19.49%	9,588
Saline	24,864	63.15%	14,153	35.94%	359	0.92%	10,711	27.21%	39,376
Scott	2,514	62.26%	1,473	36.48%	51	1.26%	1,041	25.78%	4,038
Searcy	2,565	64.25%	1,370	34.32%	57	1.44%	1,195	29.93%	3,992
Sebastian	27,303	61.76%	16,479	37.27%	429	0.97%	10,824	24.49%	44,211
Sevier	2,516	54.68%	2,035	44.23%	50	1.08%	481	10.45%	4,601
Sharp	4,097	54.85%	3,265	43.71%	108	1.45%	832	11.14%	7,470
Stone	3,188	57.45%	2,255	40.64%	106	1.91%	933	16.81%	5,549
Union	10,502	58.89%	7,071	39.65%	259	1.46%	3,431	19.24%	17,832
Van Buren	3,988	54.08%	3,310	44.89%	76	1.03%	678	9.19%	7,374
Washington	35,726	55.73%	27,597	43.05%	780	1.22%	8,129	12.68%	64,103
White	17,001	64.34%	9,129	34.55%	295	1.12%	7,872	29.79%	26,425
Woodruff	1,021	33.74%	1,972	65.17%	33	1.09%	-951	-31.43%	3,026
Yell	3,678	55.23%	2,913	43.75%	68	1.03%	765	11.48%	6,659
Totals	572,898	54.31%	469,953	44.55%	12,094	1.15%	102,945	9.76%	1,054,945

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
Ouachita (Largest city: Camden)

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.^[14]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	52%	47%	Marion Berry
2nd	51%	48%	Vic Snyder
3rd	62%	36%	John Boozman
4th	51%	48%	Mike Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney: