Group of Two

The Group of Two (G-2 or G2) is a hypothetical and an informal grouping made up of the United States of America and People's Republic of China that was first proposed by C. Fred Bergsten .^[1]^[2] While the original concept had a strong economic focus, more recent iterations have a more all-encompassing focus.^[3] This is the result of the concept gaining more traction with members of the Obama Administration and foreign policy establishment who came to recognize the increasing importance of America's relationship with China. Prominent advocates of the grouping include former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, historian Niall Ferguson, former World Bank President Robert Zoellick and former chief economist Justin Yifu Lin.

As two of the most influential and powerful countries in the world, there have been increasingly strong suggestions by American liberal politicians of creating a G-2 relationship where the United States and China would work out solutions to global problems together, and to prevent another cold war.^[4] However, as strategic competition between the two powers has intensified, many have rejected the concept.^[5]^[6]

History

The concept of a G-2 was first raised by noted economist C. Fred Bergsten in 2005.^[3] In 2009, Bergsten made the following arguments for such a relationship:

China will shortly pass Japan to become the world's second largest economy behind the United States;

the two together accounted for almost one half of all global growth during the four-year boom prior to the crisis;

they are the two largest economies;

they are the two largest trading nations;

they are the two largest polluters;

they are on opposite ends of the world's largest trade and financial imbalance: the United States is the largest deficit and debtor country while China is the largest surplus country and holder of dollar reserves; and

they are the leaders of the two groups, the high-income industrialized countries and the emerging markets/developing nations, that each now account for about one half of global output.^[7]

Zbigniew Brzezinski had been a vocal advocate for the concept. He publicly advanced the notion in Beijing in January 2009 as the two countries celebrated the 30th anniversary of establishing formal diplomatic ties.^[8] He views the informal G-2 as helpful in finding solutions to the global financial crisis, climate change (see Politics of global warming), North Korea's nuclear program, Iran's nuclear program, the Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, United Nations peacekeeping, nuclear proliferation, and nuclear disarmament. He called the principle of "harmony" a "mission worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for shaping our collective future".^[9]^[10]

Historian Niall Ferguson has also advocated the G-2 concept. He coined the term Chimerica to describe the symbiotic nature of the U.S.-China economic relationship.

Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, and Justin Yifu Lin, the Bank's former chief economist and senior vice president, have stated that the G-2 is crucial for economic recovery and that the U.S. and China must work together. They state that "without a strong G-2, the G-20 will disappoint".^[11]

While widely discussed, the concept of a G-2 has not been fully defined. According to Brzezinski, G-2 described the current realities, while for former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, a G-2 could emerge in the foreseeable future.^[8] Miliband proposes EU integration as a means to create a potential G-3 that consists of the United States, China and the European Union.

Former President Barack Obama and former United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been very supportive of good relations between the two countries and more cooperation on more issues more often. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has stated that U.S.–China relationship should be "taken to a new level". Some experts have disagreed with the effectiveness of a G-2.^[12] However, Clinton has said that there is no G-2.^[13]

In 2023, it was reported by Nikkei Asia that Xi Jinping drew on the idea of G-2 as a way to manage his country's relations with the U.S.^[6]